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A guess at CLA asset value to be announced, page-6

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rastus2

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02/03/18

14:02

Post #: 31482235
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Originally posted by phuket guy ↑

Guys/gals please dont jump down my throat about lack of details here as I know im taking a very broad brush approach to this calculation -but its based on generic figures as correct as I can figure right now. If any one wants to add/subtract to this with more detail please do so. I know some more knowlgeable members have done much more in detail calc based on pa output/processing costs/taxes/payability etc . This is just a generic broad brush calc for my own edification.

In about 2 weeks we (shareholders and the small section of the market/analysts that are even watching CLA at this point) are expecting roughly the following results to be announced by CLA.

1. a Jorc of around 20 million tons
2. An realistic exploration target of around 80- mill tons
3. and all this is on potentially less than 10% of our orebody.

So lets try to value that as an overall asset.

1. 20 mill tons at 0.14% cobalt (Co) +0.5% copper
for Co =28,000 tons -at av 85% recoverability =23,800 ton x 82,000$ a ton =1.95 billion USD.
for Cu =100,000tons at av85% recoverability =85,000 ton x 7,000 $a ton =600,000 mill USD
total value 2.55 bill USD = approx 3.25 billion AU$ of gross asset in the ground JORCed.

2. + 80 mill tons exploration target at same calc as above could be potentially worth 10.2 bill usd =13 billion AU$.
so theres also a potential total of 16 billion AUD gross value in ground asset from JORC and explortion target announcement.

3. and thats in just 10% of our ore body.!!. to get real excited we could multiply that by 10x/ 5 x..or just 3x!

Thats just gross asset value figure. ....so to try to get an indication of the net asset value. Given that my (totally unqualified but not totally uninformed) best guess is 40US$ a ton to extract concentrated ore and my best guess at cost of processing that concentrate into cathode coppper plate and cobalt sulphide will be around 20US$ a ton (these are of course just my best guesses ....the comming scoping study will give much clearer costings here) then the cost to get sellable product at Walvis Bay dock will be 60US$ a ton. (77%AUD) - for the 100 mill tons (Jorc and exploration volumes) that will be 7 billion AU$. ..... So 16 bill gross asset value less 7 billion processing value means the net value of our asset at Walvis Bay ready to sell will be around AU$ 9 billion.

If payability at Walvis bay is 85% of market price it means the net asset value of what we are about to announce could potentailly be AUD 7.6 billion of net asset (profit) in the ground (and only in less than 10% of our orebody!!)

And we are still capped at just 60 million AUD undiluted.......hmmm?..and the cobalt price is probably going much higher....hmmm??

Another broad brush rule of thumb way to calc it is to say if we ran just that 100 mill tons (jorc and explortion target amount) at 4 mtpa output -thats 20 years minning to get out the net 7.6 billion asset value =$380 million a year profit. At say 8 x PE means CLA cap could be going to 3 billionish???....so my AUD 500 mill guess at a sale price soonish looks pretty cheap...... over 10 times higher than todays Share price.

just some thoughts for Friday.

Expand

thanks PG.. always good to see one of your long posts... up ramping ? damn yes it is... but there is little I disagree with what you are saying.

The only thing I think will hurt our bottom line is the cost to extract the stuff... starts @ surface and deeeeeeeeeeeeeep. When we have an idea of what that is going to cost us, a lot of risk would have been removed.

Cheers,
R2

CLA Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

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