a guess at what range is worth

On a risk adjusted basis all the components of Range are worth varying amounts -

This is kinda the way I think of it -

The derisked number is what I guess the current holding is worth (yes I plucked these numbers from where the sun don't shine) and the risked number is a guess on the kind of discount factor you need to apply given the political and drill associated risks.

Feel free to change the numbers to suit you - there are people that would have a much better idea what each thing is worth.


Smith derisked 12c Risked 4c
Russel derisked 8c Risked 2c
Cotton derisked 4c Risked 1c
Trinidad derisked 10c Risked 2c
Georgia derisked 40c Risked 2c
Punt(on) derisked 80c Risked 4c
Punt (off)derisked $2.00 Risked 4c

Puntland offshore gets a big weighting cause they still have 100% but after farmin and risking it it is probably only worth the same to Range as the 20% onshore value.

So In theory I reckon Range could be worth as much as $3.50 id it had actually found everything they are looking for and were safely producing and selling the stuff - after you discount all the risks I reckon it is only worth about 15-20c right now. Still plenty of room for a rally from here but keep an eye on the news flow - obviously flow rates from Smith could change the value from 4c in my mind today to 8c putting a Range valuation in the 20s and Russel being proved a winner could add another 2-4c. Until we know more about Trinidad I am only ascribing 2c value - over the next few days we can see if it is actually worth more. Obviously any good news on Georgia or Puntland has the potential for big valuation changes - Rig mobilisation from AOI would make the onshore puntland value double in my book from 4c to 8c and obviously success could be worth up to 20-30c but I wouldn't ascribe a value above this for years - till they are safely pumping black stuff and have secure infrastructure build all around. A farmin for offshore could be worth 5 or 10c depending on their credibility.

Much potential but for now I can see trading interest on hype up to a max of 15-20c and then it would need substance. The volume on AIM last Friday was absolutely key in my mind - you can see on any chart the rising formation and increasing volume - don't underestimate to power of money flow.