I just realised that there is the potential for NONE of the...

I just realised that there is the potential for NONE of the capital from sale of insurance business to be returned to share holders. AMP have been sitting on cash reserves for some time now and there is another $1.9b cash coming (potentially) from the sale of the insurance business. The big question is how much of that will be distributed back to shareholders? Given the state of affairs at AMP and the current share price could the answer could be none of it? 

AMP's share price means that they could have major problems meeting cash reserving and capital requirements if they don't hold onto the cash that they currently have. In the past they may have simply issued equity however given the share price of around $2.60 this seems an unlikely. Following this to it's natural conclusion, a big bag of cash reserves in the vicinity of $3b and a market cap of $7b could make this a prime takeover target. Unfortunately to release the cash reserves any takeover would require a bust up and sale to get those assets that require reserves off the books. It would also require a heavy hitter with deep pockets and a solid balance sheet to pull it off. 

Have I read the play correctly or am I in Lala land?