A huge buying opportunity, page-7

Thanks Kiwinvestor, yes on a paper money basis there has been a loss, but I do not look at the stock every day and you cant lose something you haven't sold - this is a hold and keep type stock.

My long term view is around a few simple points, I try to have a very clear thesis:

1) I have a lot of confidence and conviction in the stock given that most of my direct family are in the medical profession and can vouch for the scientific data.

2) I know people in the trials who can attest to a very material improvement in their function - which provides real life data.

3) Paul Rennie's journey to start this company was unbelievable and demonstrated very high conviction. He is a man of integrity and I have know him reasonably well. I've never seen him worried about PAR, and has a quiet confidence. I genuinely think it was unbelievable he got a raise done during those market conditions.


So I genuinely thought in 2020, and still think, that $4 was extremely low to be selling off something of such tremendous value. Value and timelines rarely intersect and this is a deep value play. This should be at minimum ~$1bn given the data that has already come out, I have never seen data that significant come out before a major trial.

What value that will be in 3 years is difficult to analyse, it depends on multiple behavioural factors, given that this essentially "pre-revenue". In the medium term it will require just a change in thinking for newer investors wanting to invest in the stock.

1. The changing market view that it is an "a-typical" biotech stock with a totally different risk profile.
2. People having a collective capacity to hold stocks through market cycles.
3. That institutions like Morgans actually understand the stock before building models that omit numerous details, and then fear monger people into selling because those people do not have all the information.

Everyone will have their back-of the envelope style valuation for this.
Whatever number that comes to easily suggests it to be much more than $4. It would be irresponsible of me to say it will be over $15, but it has that potential and more.