A Hunch - The Smart Money

I thought more about Nevchev, and his Smart Money comment. I like the idea of that very much. So I thought who could possibly fit that description - and believe me I know nothing (BUT I have a vivid imagination).

That last trade before the closing auction today, 1.51 million shares at 13.0 cents (=$196K). Its an unusual trade. Not many punters do that, and no fundy would do it on a spec stock - until SFG announces debt funding it remains speculative. Who would fit that profile that we know of?

Then I thought about the last placement - if you recall Jan Cameron, and the Chairman took up the majority of that placement. Ms Cameron had already been buying SFG shares prior to that placement. She now holds (as of the last share statement) an 11.4% stake in SFG.

Who is she exactly - about the 4th richest woman in Australia, net worth ca 320 million (give or take a few). She made her name as founder of the clothing retailer Kathmandu. There is no doubt that she has a long term interest in the development of Project Sea Dragon, because she definitely couldn't possibly trade herself out of her current shareholding in SFG without damaging the share price. And I'm sure she must have a good understanding of what that PSD development will do for SFG - not just in terms of share price, but in terms of it being an absolute cash flow generator.

There's a possibility that she's increased her shareholding since the placement, but until she's bought another 24 million shares she wouldn't have to declare an increase in her shareholding.

So IF this latest splurge was Ms Cameron, then:
1. There certainly is Smart Money being invested, with a view that at 13.0 cents the company is cheap;
2. There's definitely more money available from the same source, for more purchases in coming days/weeks;
3. Anyone thinking of selling at the moment really needs to think it through - you might regret your selling if the purchasing continues to build!

I may be wrong about this hunch, but for me its a very high probability.

Btw, no one (not even the company) will know who bought those shares today for another couple of days.