A lesson in History of Climate alarmism, page-162

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stayer

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15/11/19

09:10

Post #: 41438710
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Originally posted by stayer ↑

Look I apologise for being a bit late to this discussion and only reading a few posts, but bird man did make me laugh with a few. Now I admit to being a climate change sceptic particularly man-made climate change. But I am a farmer and I do follow the weather and I have read a fair amount of forecasts. That is why I concur with another post further down from this one which questions the accuracy of a lot of the models. Yes I have seen a lot of forecast, and go and a lot of them are wrong so how can I accurately predict something in 20 or 30 or 40 years time.

20 years ago we had a forecasting “revolution” called the southern all oscillation index and its links to La Nina and El Niño.We, as farmers were basically told that’s all we had to follow to get an idea of the Forecast for the season. However in more recent years ( wet years of 2010 it got a lot of mentions) the Indian Ocean dipole has been mentioned, and now it seems to be the crux of the matter. Don White from weatherwatch is one of the better forecasters in Australia and he has also talked about the southern ocean a lot lately and there is a term for it I can’t remember at present....The thing that concerns me , and does make me question my sceptical stance, is how he is linking a hotter atmosphere to the weather systems travelling further south than they should! He also spoke of his observations last Summer about the systems “ slowing up” , hence longer heatwaves and longer floods( nq).

However I do go back to the fact that the likes of Inigo Jones forecast these droughts based on planetary cycles six decades ago....I do read a bit of David Burton in the your trading edge magazine also , and he has very detailed research about the planetary cycles and weather.....So summing up, I actually think that no one really knows. Me, I believe in cycles both in the financial markets and in a lot of other things, so I believe the biggest influence at the moment is cyclical, probably linked to the planetary cycles and their influences on sunspots and vice versa.

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Sorry for typos in last sentence of first paragraph...I was talking of how we are flat out getting next weeks forecasts right, let alone 20 years plus!
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