WDS 0.40% $27.28 woodside energy group ltd

WPL and OSH reacted very differently when oil prices crashed....

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    WPL and OSH reacted very differently when oil prices crashed. Chart below Red is WPL, Blue is OSH, pink is brent crude.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2210/2210922-8c4acf433b30bc2fdb9fccc171aff42d.jpg
    If the reference point is pre-crash, then WPL is outperforming OSH by a mile. If it's post crash, then sure an oil price recovery would help OSH more, a lot more ground to make up. Every time there is a crash in oil price, during recovery you have people asking why WPL is lagging. WPL is the lowest cost producer and has an amazing balance sheet, the share price didn't respond to the oil price crash in the same way because investors price in WPL surviving the down cycle without dilution, this same thing is still not priced into OSH even currently.

    IMO there is still a bit of caution out there that we are in the oil price recovery phase. There could be another dip sub $30, a second wave of covid may see lockdowns in Europe and Asia again, travel won't recover until post covid vaccines (impacting lightest crudes the most - nearest jet fuel)
    . If you are betting on an oil price recovery to $65+ then OSH will perform better than WPL, if there is another significant dip below $30 OSH could be looking at another CR, WPL can wait it out. Frankly I hold WPL because I don't need to bet on nearer term oil price and can look at the longer term. BPT is in a similar position to WPL. OSH doesn't have that same buffer which is clear looking at the relative share price performance.
 
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