a little bird told me "cheap,cheap"

The Weekend Australian
Edition 1 - All-round CountrySAT 11 FEB 2006, Page 044
STOCK WATCH


TELSTRA
TLS closed 6c lower at $4.02
Reaffirmed as a HOLD at $4.08
DURING the first half, Telstra's mobile revenues climbed 4.6 per cent, which was OK. But what really instilled Sol Trujillo with some fleeting joy was that Big Pond attracted 317,000 broadband subscribers, a 37 per cent gain. With Sensis also doing well, have Trujillo and his amigos slightly overplayed the gloom?
Trujillo says the telco's merely tracking to plan, which means he must be expecting a stinker of a second half. Would Criterion recommend Telstra shares to his mother?
Probably not, but believers in Trujillo might want to plunge in for the longer-term.

COCA-COLA AMATIL
CCL closed 9c lower at $6.92
Tipped as a LONG-TERM BUY on Friday at $7.03
DESPITE local volumes shrinking 0.3 per cent, CCA boosted per-case revenues and managed to boost local EBIT by 5 per cent.
CCA is a vast user of sugar, aluminium, plastic resins and steel tinplate, commodities which have soared in price. For better or for worse, 80 per cent of these costs are set in stone for the current year. Management remains confident of passing these costs on to suppliers, but investors were unconvinced.
There's a lot to like about the company, which is well down the diversification path into water, juices and food.

VISION GROUP
VGH closed 2c higher at $4.47
Changed from LONG-TERM BUY to
HOLD on Thursday at $4.70
VGH's half-year results were rather disappointing. It plans to lift full-year underlying earnings by 30 to 40 per cent.
That means Vision needs to produce full-year EBITDA of $27.4 million to $29.5 million, having posted only $12.1 million in the first half. Perhaps its doable, as demand for laser surgery is weighted towards the June half. Vision works on the consolidator model whereby it acquires ophthalmology practices and the practitioners can become partners. This suggests good momentum.

AUSTRALAND
Tipped as a SELL on Tuesday at $2
AUSTRALAND'S business is diversified and increasingly weighted away from residential and industrial development in favour of income from its property investment portfolio. In Australand's full-year results posted yesterday, investment properties accounted for 48 per cent of its $3 billion portfolio, compared with 24 per cent in 2004. Australand expects weak residential conditions to continue in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, partly offset by Perth, which will stay strong.

GWA INTERNATIONAL
GWT closed 2c higher at $3.00
Tipped as an AVOID on Wednesday
at $2.98
GWA's interim results this week were ordinary, as expected, while Hills Industries is doing OK. GUD's numbers last week were also quite good, as were garage door maker Alesco's. McPherson's (household goods) is yet to report but has sounded a profit warning. GWA's interim earnings fell 5 per cent on an EBIT basis and the company expected full-year earnings to be up to 10 per cent lower, albeit compared with a record 2004-05.

NYLEX
NLX closed 0.5c lower at 13c
Tipped as a SPECULATIVE BUY on Wednesday at 13.5c
NYLEX has a revered suite of brand names and derives about 25 per cent of its earnings from the automotive industry. Add to the equation import competition, a high dollar and the soaring prices of oil-related input costs and it's not a pretty picture. Nylex reports its half-year numbers on February 27 but has already warned of a poor result. Criterion suspects we won't see an operational recovery at Nylex within a typical investor's time frame. Just for fun we'll bet on an industry shake-out and rate Nylex a SPECULATIVE BUY. But don't hang
around for a dividend.