Good point Chillam. My comments weren't "event specific" but rather just "well specific", ie related only to the first well. As such it wasn't meant as a spud date price prediction but rather a price target that could be achieved at some point during the campaign for the first well, which could be post spud.
I do however now realise that such comments made in the context of a thread for guessing the spud price could reasonable be taken differently to that intended. Notwithstanding this, and in the spirit of exceptionally long odds traditionally associated with O&G, I will boldly keep my staken claim for the 72c mark and accept that it is a spud date cuttoff. I do this for several reasons:
a) The scientific rational for my prediction was a complex as hoping for certain other punters to at least have the opportunity to double their money. I didn't dillute my logic with probabilities of success.
b) The territory in the 31-57 range is heavily staked by other punters and I felt the need for personal space.
c) In line with the old saying "be careful what you wish for, it might come true", I felt that if I went a low number and won then I'd really be losing.
Re the $1.20+ on announcement, I suspect you are correct in that $1.20 pre announcement is unlikely. Shortly after announcement however this is a possibility if all goes well. Although my spud guess is just a bit of fun as the thread intended, I do feel that success on this first well, ie an announcement of a major gas find, irrespective of quantification could easily give NEN a slingshot effect because it would improve several fundamental things all at once, ie:
a) Massively derisk the first block b) Create significant speculation about the following 6 or so prospects with improved "percieved" odds of success c) Put all eyes on the first drill in the next block which follows the first block very quickly d) timeline to additional cashflow coming online would change NENs financial position and perception in the market e) Improve NENs ability to fund other projects and possibly move them forward faster.
and finally and most importantly NENs involvement in a major success in Vietnam could raise the company's profile with investors significantly.
I certainly don't advise anybody to use my logic for investment decisions but I'm happy on my little rock being 17c above groucho. Bugger all chances of winning maybe but that'll make winning that much better.
NEN Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
