According to media reports, the international price of gold plummeted avalanche month ago ignited the Chinese consumer a purchase gold tide, while the price of gold after the rally back low, then let the "Chinese Mother" grab gold joy vanished. Chinese consumer demand dips push gold prices may not be sufficient, but for those who wish to achieve through the gold of the people of Tibet Meeting the people's Bank of China, described as everything is under control.
Chinese gold consumption with incomes rise, and sporadic acts of trickle buy gold, will the government's foreign reserve holdings of gold in order to achieve the strategic goal of diversification provides the perfect fit flank; while government regulators continue to release and big gold market, but also does nothing to the gold market was RMB capital account liberalization plots strategic intent.
"With the gold in China to achieve hidden Meeting the people, so this is the way to achieve three killed, took the gold, the yuan, the U.S. dollar linked. Actually achieve the renminbi capital account convertibility." The world's first market capitalization two big banks - China Construction Bank commodities and futures trading, said Wang Yong, general manager.
State Administration of Foreign Exchange in the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, export credit and written off against gold, foreign exchange exposure management and gold overseas lending, continue to regulate the development and introduction of measures to encourage and support the commercial banks active gold business into the national foreign exchange management and monitoring system.
Wang Yong and stressed that almost all of the gold trading policy are not subject to foreign exchange quota restrictions, from this perspective, in fact, has been partially achieved RMB capital account convertibility.
Although after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the gold in the global monetary system's role greatly reduced, but still very important to the global foreign exchange assets is also under international payment system and recognized the strategic assets to pay foreign debt assets. Especially in the era of major competitive devaluation is well deserved hard assets.
Golden years of 2001-2011, the international price of gold by the $ 254 / ounce rose to $ 1,920, although the growth in consumption and investment is affected by inflated demand, thanks to global central banks to net buying by the net disposal is a main line that runs through . This is why the central bank's actions will always be a great uproar in the gold market.
"The government is very smart, in order to buy gold, split up, so that enterprises buy, from this perspective, China's gold market, there is still much room for development." Galaxy Futures and precious metals, chief macroeconomic analyst Mr. Zhao Wei said.
As for China's central bank, in terms of the gold exchange in China and then to Tibet in China, has gold reserves are very low as the world's second largest economy had to choose a curve line, although Chinese people hold gold is inherently preferences, but through piecemeal piecemeal pace, means that this process will take a relatively long time.
In fact, both the size of the market or investment products, China's gold market is at most just crossed the initial stage, but still far from mature markets into the ranks of physical gold demand accounted consumer demand still occupy a pivotal position. Although the growth rate of investment demand has been quite significant, but the base is very low, and the product less of inadequate financial system is not yet perfect and still constituted constraints.
First global banks by market capitalization - China ICBC Precious Metals Business Unit spokesman Shi Xudong said that China's gold enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy requires financial capital support. Future of China's gold industry and banks and other financial institutions should be stronger linkage around the Chinese gold industry chain development of financial innovation will accomplish much.
Compared to the U.S. gold reserves of over 8,000 tons of scale, the world's second largest economy, China is now the official gold reserves of only 1,054 tons. Central bank vice governor Yi Gang in this year's "two sessions" has said that gold reserves and central bank gold investment is always an option to consider, but keep the market stable, to maintain price stability.
Golden West eastward or accelerated
Despite the "Chinese Mother" as the image of the endorsement of the Chinese consumers to buy gold enthusiasm is very high, but there is no evidence that their purchase behavior to allow institutional investors on Wall Street is expected to shift, the position data and the declining price of gold fell again gives the answer , gold investment demand in developed markets still dominate the price of gold.
However, interviewed experts believe that China's government expects to increase gold reserves more fundamental is determined, so China is not only reflected the golden preferences on the people, the Chinese government the same way. With the gold bull market is no longer the West gold eastward process may be accelerated.
"China's foreign exchange reserves so much, but lower than the proportion of gold reserves. Did not dare openly to China's central bank holdings of gold, China is now the gold is not to just let import export agents are now commercial banks, central banks, etc. So imported gold. "a state accusing him of precious metals trader said.
The traders said that commercial banks are borne some overnight foreign exchange exposure risks. Recently Gold down at night through the bank more and more people buy gold, equal to the bank at night to buy gold on the international market, to buy dollars from the market during the day, and now they've been renminbi appreciation, which banks buy gold is very beneficial.
China Gold Association data show that in the first quarter of this year, the national consumption of 320.54 tons of gold, an increase of 25.6%. The same period, total production of 89.907 tons of gold, compared with the same period last year increased 9.098 tons, an increase of 11.26%. Meanwhile, China has maintained the world's largest gold buying country's status in the first quarter gold demand was 294.3 tons, compared with the fourth quarter jumped 45% and an increase of 20%.
China Minsheng Banking Financial Markets Market Research Center analyst Tangxiang Bin pointed out that Europe's central bank reserves, a higher proportion of gold reserves, which is the structure between emerging market countries is uneven. "For the emerging countries reserve perspective, gold is still a strategic reserve. In this sense, if the dollar system turmoil, as other reserves in the form of gold is good as a supplement."
Chinese government's preference for gold has never relax. Including China qualified banks at the international gold trading are excluded from the scope of foreign exchange quota management, and the opening of China's gold market since the central bank since it has been encouraging gold imports, and through the development of the market to expand investment and trading net inflow of gold.
Central Bank data show that in 2012 the bank's own foreign exchange trading, precious metals exchange rate exposure flat plate scale 1,205 billion U.S. dollars, down 23% compared to last year, accounting for the bank's own 76% of the total foreign exchange; precious metals exchange rate exposure level plate caused a net sale of foreign exchange for the bank's own $ 9.4 billion, which indicates that China in the international market for precious metal (including precious metals and physical precious metal accounts) is still in the state of net buying.
As Chinese domestic banking channels through the use of RMB investment precious metals demand, domestic banks need to buy foreign exchange from the international market accounts for physical precious metal precious metal or import flat plate, the foreign exchange needed to form precious metal exchange exposure. And for the flat fill this part of the exposure, the bank needs to purchase foreign exchange in the interbank market. Since July 2007 the introduction of relevant policies since the end of 2012, the net purchase of foreign banks such totaled $ 27.1 billion.
And with the Chinese gold market opening, the central bank holdings of gold assets is also intended to significantly move. China's central bank reported that Bank of precious metal removal rate exposures flat plate, 2011, the People's Bank Commercial Bank agency $ 14.3 billion purchase of foreign imports of gold, an increase of 115% compared to last year, in 2012, commercial banks purchase foreign exchange for imports of gold on behalf of the People's Bank of $ 18.6 billion, up 30% over the previous year.
"Gold has been discussing pricing on the market now have been discussing the" West Golden eastward "problem, this trend is very obvious, the market's focus on change, but pricing is still in the hands of the West, which is the market situation. "a large domestic banks, a senior official said the precious metals business.
Provide plots for the opening of capital account
Although developed gold market and huge gold reserves and the internationalization of the RMB is not the RMB capital account liberalization a necessary condition, but experts point out that the gold in China achieved through hidden Meeting the people, so as to capital account liberalization and internationalization of the RMB to provide support or "ahead of a move."
"RMB internationalization is a long process, but if there is a hard currency (gold) as a patron can certainly be better, but now the gold in China is still a long-term process, the current state for the gold market development strategy still prefer the gold to the people." Tangxiang Bin said.
He also stressed that the internationalization of the RMB and China's gold market development are mutually reinforcing, the central bank's development strategy for the precious metal gold first possession of the people, while the gold in China is hidden Meeting the people of a performance.
He explained that China's central bank does not want all the foreign exchange yuan domestic investors, but expect Chinese residents and the diversity of the institution's assets, so to some extent alleviate the pressure on foreign exchange reserves, it could be better liberalization of the financial markets and to promote the internationalization of the RMB, or the capital account convertibility, and overseas investments.
"Hidden gold in China is a kind of attempt. Expect domestic investors hold more foreign exchange, foreign exchange assets held, while gold is also one of a kind asset allocation." Tangxiang Bin said.
Moreover, in practical terms, inside and outside the linkage so that the domestic gold market in overnight trading banks had accumulated foreign currency exposure, as far as possible to promote the management and control of the overnight bank during the RMB exchange rate risk. This is actually also for the future RMB capital account convertibility of the accumulation of practical experience.
"Precious metals market is relatively small, and thus can be effectively controlled based on the pilot continues to accelerate the pace of other products for the Chinese financial market innovations to provide guidance." Yong said.
Yong said that commercial banks to actively participate in the gold market and strengthen the international economic, financial and gold market supply and demand analysis, deepen cooperation in international financial markets, active trading, grasp trends, support from multiple aspects of China's gold market development and the protection of national financial security.
The Combination idea much less practice
Go overseas acquisitions gold bonanza, of course, is China to increase the supply of gold, the price of gold and expand the right to speak one of the most direct way. If the financial capital to give Chinese gold enterprises "going out" more support, then it would menace. But so far, the Combination of financial institutions and gold companies, still more remains in the "ideas and more, practice less" stage.
"In addition to acts of Zijin Mining CDB has provided financing to support overseas mergers and acquisitions, but so far I have not heard of other commercial banks to provide large gold enterprises overseas M & A loan support." A state accusing him of responsibility for the precious metals business the person said.
He said that the past two years, commercial banks have a limit on the amount, and enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions at higher risk potential gold mine. "Serious information asymmetry, banks certainly do not want to do such a high loans."
In recent years, China's gold enterprises have been actively looking for overseas assets. Shandong Gold Group last October to spend 225 million Australian dollars ($ 232 million) to acquire Australia Focus Minerals Ltd51% stake. Shandong Gold reserves are counted as China's second largest gold producer.
Chinese Vice Chairman Lan Fusheng Zijin Mining said earlier, than in the Chinese territory, Zijin is more interested to expand overseas gold and copper. Zijin Mining acquired last year, Norton Gold Fields Limited of Australia more than 50% stake.
Shi Xudong, says that along with the Chinese gold industry's rapid growth in recent years, sustainable development and industrial enterprises "going out" is very urgent demands. China's gold enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy requires financial capital support.
Yong also considers should actively cooperate with large gold enterprises "going out" strategy, integrating global resources of commercial banks in the international platform for enterprises to provide trade finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory package of financial services.
In fact, in 2010, including China's central bank, including the six ministries jointly issued on the development of policies to promote the gold market, made it clear that, in line with the gold industry planning and industrial policy requirements of large enterprises, commercial banks should follow the principle of expanding the credit line of credit; Gold Group to focus on supporting large-scale development and implementation of "going out" strategy.
"Six ministries files are specified direction, but we believe it to be into effect. Departments should still put some specific incentives to banks to be able to give to the enterprise, so that both of us to be able to integrate more closely in the can space to expand the operation of financial institutions, but also can provide a more tangible benefits, and a broader space for development. "another state accusing him of precious metals business, the official said.
Currently, commercial banks are basically precious metals or of the public business in gold leasing business oriented. In the bank after the gold lease to businesses, to provide appropriate support for enterprises hedging services to help customers locked risks.
Yong said, and foreign exchange, bonds, interest rates and other financial instruments as compared to gold prices more volatile, once the market conditions unfavorable impact on enterprise customers more obvious. Commercial banks after years of development, in product development, risk hedging, risk monitoring and other aspects than ordinary enterprises have certain advantages.
Thus, commercial banks should accelerate product innovation gold, the gold industry chain analysis of various aspects of market risk, improve gold forward products, and actively promote the gold swaps and gold options products that help customers effectively manage the gold price and exchange rate fluctuations arising risk exposure.
"The future should be in the nature of risk management with precious metals derivatives, gold industry mergers and acquisitions and financial assets to finance support services and other areas of financial innovation should be a breakthrough." Shi Xudong said.
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