re: a mathematical question stockmarket
Classical TA tells us that the more often a trend line touches the price action without penetrating, the stronger and more meaningful becomes the trend line.
Any penetration of that trend line therefore, becomes more meaningful, the longer that trend line has been established. Thus we can be more confident the trend has reversed if we have a good long trend line going up that has been tested on multiple occasions.
This doesn't really answer your question I know. Put simply, I believe you can make no accurate prediction simply from the duration of an upward trend.
