a mature stock, page-2

Toys
IMO this is an emerging gold producer, not a mature stock. I think the reason little is posted on it is because we are all waiting for further confirmation that the building of the TUCANO gold project plant is on schedule and that all is well.

As you know BDR aim to produce 180,000 ounces of gold per year from mid 2011 and with a bit of luck by May.

In very rough terms once they get up to speed they should produce these 180,000 ounces at a cash cost of $550/ounce and sell for $1600/ounce giving a margin over $1000/ounce. This would give them net flow of approx $190m. Allowing for all manner of other costs, the eps should then be between 15 and 20 cents. The current SP does not recognise anything like these figures, so I patiently wait till the day it does.

My reason for buying so soon with something like BDR is that like humour and sex, everything comes down to timing and I am not good at it. Better to get in early than try and time my entry perfectly.

If all goes to plan expect a rerating and year end valuation of double current SP. $1.50 would be nice.


K