a mkt cap comparison its cheapppppp

Thought I might do a comparison of FWL against 3 others, AXO, IDO and GRR


FWL
Share Structure 55m shares + 30m 25c 1/6/2010 Options
Mkt Cap @35c = $19.25m undiluted or $29.75m fully diluted

Project
NPV = $1 Billion based on EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs

CAP EX = $330m including a 20% blow out

Infrastructure = Excellent on the main highway to the main Gerladton Port, major gas pipeline runs through the deposit, town of Yalgoo only 14kms down the major highway

Ore = Good although low grade, its coarse and testing has shown "This sample produced a very good iron recovery coupled with a low silica return at a coarse (and therefore cost effective) grind size"


AXO
Share Structure 72m shares + 11m 20c 20/10/2007 + 16m in the money unlisted opies

Mkt Cap @90c = $65m undiluted or $90m fully diluted

Project
NPV = $500m Ferro Vanadium production

CAP EX = $500m

Infrastructure = Avg requires alot of Infra

Ore = Good for Vanadium production, but unsure how easy it will be to produce Ferro Vandium



IDO
Share Structure 80m shares

Mkt Cap @$1.25c = $100m fully diluted

Project 70% Only!!
NPV = $800m Pig Iron like FWL!

CAP EX = $750m

Infrastructure = Poor Its in Indonesia, and given huge Cap Ex I'd say Poor!

Ore = Poor Its an Iron SANDS deposit grading 10% Fe so will be difficult IMO to beneficate etc



GRR
Share Structure 110m shares

Mkt Cap @$2.10 = $240m fully diluted

Project70% Only!!
NPV = Could be huge $2Billion ? Iron Pelletss

CAP EX = $1.5Billion

Infrastructure = Poor needs to build power plant, then build power lines, needs to build a slurry pipe line that goes 100kms, needs to dredge the port to make it deep water etc, clearly alot of work here, but rewards could be exceptional

Ore = Excellent for Iron Pellet production, the high grade ore keeps operating costs down




So the point I'm trying to make, is aguably GRR is the most advanced and most likely to get into production the soonest, IDO seems risky and requires a large CAP EX, AXO seems cheap when compared to PMA and GRR but I don't know what the operationl risk is with beneficating Ferro Vanadium


Bottom line at $20m FWL is wayyy to cheap! even $30m fully diluted is too cheap, this peer comparison would suggest $50m to begin with and then eventually up to $100m as the project risk reduced