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Text: New CIA Report Documents Global Weapons Proliferation Trends
(Growth of "secondary proliferation" poses added concern) (6330) A new report submitted to Congress January 30 by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) says the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is changing in ways that are increasingly difficult to monitor, thereby "increasing the risk" of their possible future surprise use.
The report, using data gathered from January 1 to June 30, 2001, for its analysis, finds that nations that want to maintain a WMD capability and accompanying delivery systems "are demonstrating greater proficiency in the use of denial and deception efforts." As countries seek a greater indigenous production capability, CIA analysts say they are worried about an increase of "secondary proliferation" from more sophisticated state-sponsored programs, such as those in Iran, North Korea and Pakistan, to entirely new recipients.
The report also touches on the possibility of terrorists using chemical, biological, nuclear and/or radiological materials, especially since the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. Several of the U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations and other non-state actors have expressed interest in these materials, according to the report, even though they are likely to prefer more traditional tactics.
Usama bin Laden and groups allied him with have sought to obtain some of these specialized materials and have made statements about using unconventional weapons to further their goals "which could be an attempt to justify the use of such weapons," according to the report’s analysis.
The report looks at WMD and advanced conventional weapons activities associated with Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Syria, Sudan, India, Pakistan and Egypt. It cites Russia, China and North Korea as being key suppliers of various technologies and expertise. The report also makes the following points:
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Egypt
During the first half of 2001, Egypt continued its long-standing relationship with North Korea on ballistic missiles. Cairo continues to maintain a deployed force of ScudBs and Cs. Egypt's ACW acquisition is aimed at modernizing its Soviet-era equipment and acquiring newer, mostly US weapons.
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Key Suppliers
Western Countries
Western countries continue to be a less important source of WMD- and missile-related goods and materials. Iran and Libya continued to approach entities in Western Europe to provide needed acquisitions for their WMD and missile programs. Increasingly rigorous end effective export controls and cooperation among supplier countries have led the other foreign WMD and missile programs to look elsewhere for many controlled items. However, proliferators and associated networks continue to seek machine tools, spare parts for dual-use equipment, and widely available materials, scientific equipment, and specialty metals. In addition, several Western countries announced their willingness to negotiate ACW sales to Libya.
