Exee your maths is entirely wrong. I have posted previously why which you have deliberately ignored.
I'm pretty sure I replied and tried to explain my reasoning. But seems that I didn't make it clear enough.
A vax that is valued at a US$100M-$900M cash payments and a 14% royalty at a US$6B market value with annual royalty income of US$350M -$500M at gardisil like rates at a better royalty % than CSLs cannot be valued at a mere $140M MC increase.
I think that I need to leave the debate here. I'll be the first to admit that any prediction is inherently unreliable (I say that in almost every post). And, in this case, I definitely haven't entirely reworked the BH valuation model so there are any number of factors that I could have overlooked. If I ever have the inclination to look into this further and come up with anything interesting I'll be sure to post it here (right after I buy or sell, depending on what I find).
Exee even your graphs were deliberately wrong as they did not plot accurately the centre growth nor the income growth not even BH or Morgans projected CC sales figures and certainly not the CFOs projected $200M sales income in the next 5-10 years either.
Perhaps wrong, but not deliberately. Although they do come with the same caveats regarding unreliable predictions. But so far they have done all right compared to the figures for the September quarter - underestimated centre numbers, but slightly OVER estimated revenue. Going forward circumstances can change so that these models are no longer appropriate. But for now they are as good as anyone else has put forward. Having said that, I think that the 'ultimate value' approach that you, Jag and others have done looking at the potential market size/market share is good to. One of the best things on a forum like this is to see different ideas.
Which ever way you calculate it, AHZ SP is highly undervalued right now
Agreed!
and it is only valued for its CC product sales as discounted also with no other valuation.
Not so sure about that. CC doesn't look like its going to be profitable, or even cashflow positive, for some time yet, so my feeling is that there some valuation for the vax is priced in already. A good-sized upfront licensing payment would definitely help out the cash flow situation.
cheers,
exee
AHZ Price at posting:
73.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)