Like many, I am going to expose my ignorance on this site:
I have been in DML a while and just let it run without ever bothering to look closely at the fundamentals - save for when I first got in a few years back. As some wiser heads have commented on these threads, DML has 2 headwinds at present: falling comodity prices (notwithstanding its medium term hedges) and a large gap between proven resource size+grade and the "blue sky" expectations that were driving the share price over the last few quarters. Those things are bad (obviously) and have deteriorated since the $1.70 bid was first mooted.
Had I bothered to look at the modelling, I would have been out on-market at $1.50 for a nice close-on 10-bagger: but like many, I did not and I just watched the chart run higher. Cest la via. On the present modelling, I'd be happy to be out at 75c.
Anyway, my point is: I will guess that there would be a large chunk of the share base that would jump at a level below $1.70 - even though we did not do so in the last round. If the Company does proceed with a dillutive offer after assuring the market that their debt was restructured at the end of March, I think any exodous would be a stampede. I expect the mere mention of it has got many shareholders secretly praying that cathy offers a way out of DML for them.
I would be willing to bet 5 DML shares that Cathay was not aware of the Corps Law provision that The Australian sited and that they are not contemplating offering again at $1.70+. Hopefully I am wrong. I added a few more for fun just before the trading halt, so I'd like to be. We'll see.
DML Price at posting:
34.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
