a new broom sweeps clean

Undoubtfully Scott has done a great job to bring back BTR from a almost desperate situation in to live and I do not want to narrow his great achievements during this time.

Just looking at the SP we have at least to admit that we are still on the same level as 2009. Okay...we have seen some great volatility. We have seen almost the A$ 2 level and the SP has been able to stay for a certain period above the A$1 level but today the SP is around 47 cents and therefore not really higher then a few years ago.

Some of you surely remember that Scott was smart enough to sell a quite nice portion of his shares (received through his option plan) to Glencore roughly 1 year ago (if I remember he sold the stake for A$ 1.30 or so). At that time I really was a little bit surprised to see Scott selling one side and on the other side talking of the A$ 1bn market cap for BTR. I really want not to be unfair or so, but one thing is for sure: Scott sold the larger part of his investment to relatively favourable conditions to Glencore at a time when the other shareholders here were still buying shares of BTR...and this even to a higher SP.

Well...let's put it this way. I am not really amused to see the SP back to 47 cents. I am even not amused that obviously some people knew that Scott will leave BTR and in the forefront have sold their investments. Maybe just with the idea to buy the shares back at a lower level (because they knew that the impact would be negative but the company itself is still worth an investment from a fundamental view). The drop from 1.50 to 0.39 can not just be explained by whatever. It started with this confusion around Perkoa, the trading halt and the rather conservative resources upgrade from Kitumba...and now Scott leaving.

If you look at the last 2 interviews at BRR you see a rater "tired" Scott. He looks really tired and not so relaxed as months ago. Pretty stressed in my opinion. I have therefore the feeling that not Scott has taken the decision to leave but somebody else has told him to go. I the face of his great achievements and also to diminuish the impact on the SP they gave him a little bit more time to find something new.

So here clearly behind the scenes a lot was going on in the last weeks or months and I am pretty sure that this has to to with the further develompment of Kitumba. Somebody for what reasons ever came to the conclusion that Scott is just not the right person to bring Kitumba to live. Furthermore I am pretty sure that somebody wants also take more control of Kitumba and its future potential (if there is any...).

The only name that here is popping up in my mind is Glencore. Let's be honest: Perkoa meanwhile is a Glencore project and BTR just receives roughly 1/3 of the profits. Glencore has full control at Perkoa. I guess here the problems with Scott started. He realized that at Perkoa he had nothing more to say. No influence of what is going on, no control. Nothing.

Then I guess Glencore started also to decide on Kitumba...or at least to influence the one or other decisions. I guess that here more issues have popped up and Glencore as one of the major shareholders just was not happy with the progress or the plans or what ever.

I would not be surprised to see a new CEO coming that in some or the other way is connected to Glencore or to Xstrata. I have the feeling that the new guy is already in the pipeline...and after the release of the PFS will jump in.

Besides that in the next 2 months we might expect the one or other good announcement from Kitumba or Kazokhi...or even Perkoa.

So....for every night there is a day...and maybe today we are sad to see Scott leaving....maybe in 12 months and at a substantially higher SP we come to the conlusion that at the end this was a logical and good step for BTR and its shareholders.

I have the feeling that the next 2-3 months will be very important for BTR and will substantially influence the SP of the next 1-2 years.

Obviously still people out there selling at even lower levels. Personally I think every price around 40 cents is a bargain in the long run.