A New Dawn, page-43

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Pieman202020

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25/09/20

11:29

Post #: 47624121
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Originally posted by Stevenporo: ↑

I had the same sentiment as you did about battery day being a non factor event for Novonix. End of the day the grid-storage will be a large market to tap into also. There's a few reasons why I will still be holding even though it is real rough seeing the red arrows everyday.

1. The mention of silicon batteries replacing graphite batteries by Elon is interesting. The reason why Elon decided to do that is in 'theory' it would increase the amount of electrons by 10x which means greater amounts of energy stored. Whilst, aiming to reduce the cost of batteries by 5% as silicon is a more available material. However, that sounds all great but top battery expert Shirley Meng explains that 20-30% silicon material in batteries is the most optimal amount as any higher the disadvantages begin to outweigh the benefits. One of the disadvantages of silicon anode compared to graphite anode is that when absorbing large amounts of lithium ions during charging, graphite retains itself quite well, as oppose to the silicon anode which swells more than 300%. This ultimately creates cracks within the surface and limits the energy storage capacity drastically. Shirley Meng also explains that energy in the battery cell does not increase linearly when you add silicon past 30%, so the theory of 10x is out the window and it is closer to 3x. So in saying all this Elon is essentially trading up cost reduction against million mile battery performance. MMB technology would benefit grid energy and long term durable EV (trucks) as those things large corporations are unlikely to change ever so often. Furthermore, the rest of the 70-80% material required would most likely be graphite until better technology is discover, which will still be a while away or never.

2. With the current macro-politics of US and China decoupling, many companies are reshuffling their supply chains as new tariffs and restrictions are imposed. I would only suspect that Novonix will benefit from NA and Europe market in some sort as there are only a few suppliers of synthetic graphite outside of China. But, Novonix DPMG technology helps reduce costs and will be an enticing carrot to dangle. China currently owns 75-80% of the market share of graphite globally and radical changes could be fueled if a certain government wins the election. It has already started to happen.

3. Tesla wants to eventually cut out the middle man and create a vertical supply chain. However, we must consider that big companies like Samsung, Panasonic, other battery companies and automotive companies are not just going to sit back and watch their company perish. These companies will invest in R&D in their battery technology in order to stay relevant. There are still many companies out there that can still benefit from Novonix's technology.

Definitely worth a watch! She explains things pretty clear.

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I found the following link article where Tesla part of a car manufacturer class lawsuit against the US Government over high tariffs on imports from China.
https://www.*.com.au/tesla-sues-us-government-trumps-tariffs-on-imports-from-china-2020-9?r=US&IR=T
There's immense pressure on the supply chain overheads for car manufacturers now.
Novonix has potentially in part the lock and key solution for these issues.

Last edited by Pieman202020: 25/09/20

NVX Price at posting: $1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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