This is the most illogical and confusing market that I've seen...

This is the most illogical and confusing market that I've seen in the many years that I've been investing.

I've abandoned the 5 - 10 year window and other criteria which I used to look at, and barring any major good or bad indicators, the two main criteria which I now use for judging whether to invest or not are:

(1) How much is this stock realistically likely to increase in the next 1 - 2 years in percentage terms? and

(2) How much is it possible that it might drop in percentage terms in the next 1 - 2 years?

If the likely percentage increase significantly exceeds the possible percentage decrease, then it's a candidate. I'm only interested in percentage terms rather than actual dollar amounts because that gives me a clear picture of whether it's a good risk for my cash. It's a simple formula, but it seems to be working well.

WMC is a standout for me on the risk/reward ladder.