"The thing about the President Trump getting reelected and likely sweep by the Republicans is that America First is here to stay. In some ways, this moves US political practice is closer to US business practice. What I mean by that, is that rules are not so important - leverage and power is. If you want to have an independent policy from the US, then you need to have an independent military, and supply chain. Only two or three nations have this, Russia and China and possibly India, and are the only nations that can negotiate with US, mainly as they have an independent military base. The three countries that I have lived in, Australia, Japan and the UK, and now closer to vassal states, than truly independent nations. The UN is also largely redundant. We are back to Great Power political era.The likely outcome of a Trump win, is the rise of strongmen politicians everywhere, and the remilitarisation of every corner of the globe. The EU needs a European army to remain relevant, but I suspect distrust runs to deep for that to be realistic. Ultimately, the reelection of Trump, signals the end of trade and trust led growth. It ends the era of all getting prosperous together. The market was already foreshadowing this with the dominance of US equities, and this seems likely to continue. The dominant trade of long S&P500 and short Treasuries, also looks likely to continue."
The next stage in western civilisation dawns, Russell Clark
