I think it pretty much comes down to
1. Are these contracts real and will they get paid?
2. Is the business sustainable, will they get more contracts?
Its an indictment on management that question 1 is even an issue but without cash it doesn't matter what they say profits were, just look at GTP and TIM just recently.
Question 2 for me is an acceptable risk as if gross margins are what they are reporting cash from the malaysian and chinese contracts will be greater than their current EV. Its also a risk you take with any other company on the ASX, its just a lot lumpier in NBS's case.
Risk is that management is lying. If that is true I'll be amazed at how they were able to keep the truth from the market for so long, but you have enron, worldcom and madoff who did it on a far larger scale. I'll also lose a fair amount of cash not nearly as much as the management but I'm sure they have a lot of money squirreled away elsewhere with their bloated salaries.
The reward is quite evident given their current and expected pe ratio and dividend yield.
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Dr Michael Thurn, CEO & MD
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