a pivotal weekend

While I'm not completely comfortable discussing PEN in relation to the Japanese earthquake (in the scheme of things impacts on PEN's fate in the share market is small beer compared to the massive losses faced by so many), the reality is, we have an interest (as holders or would-be holders) and the markets open tomorrow and we need a view.

It seems to me that during the last 12-24 hours, as news of the nuclear plant damage has come to hand, that the whole uranium industry (PEN included) has been at a significant pivot point.

That is, on the one hand, a meltdown with significant escape of radioactive wastes would see a Three Mile Island scenario - of tarnished confidence and reputations, escalated opposition to all things nuclear - all over again. This would cause an inevitable slowdown/reversal to the nuclear renaissance - with the consequence of share prices of all uranium companies taking significant hits.

On the other hand, though, if the Japanese can contain and avoid any significant health and environmental impacts in the midst of the WORST EVER earthquake and tsunamis to hit the country in its history, then that will be a massive vote of confidence in the nuclear industry. That is, a sense that if the nuclear option can handle that scale of threat, it can handle anything.

So we have been at (still are at?) the pivot point all weekend. Which way is it falling?

My first impression on waking up this morning and finding no meltdown news is that we are through the worst (with respect to the threat of nuclear contamination). Perhaps it is still too early to tell. I haven't the technical knowledge to comment on that - can only wait and watch.

But my gut feeling is that my comments (moderated) yesterday about the media beatups in these situations are seemingly correct. If given the choice between a 'glass half full' or a 'glass half empty' option, the commercial media will always go for the latter.

It appears, so far, that all the reports of meltdowns (suggested as almost certain following the explosion) have been grossly exaggerated. Hopefully we will know for sure before markets open tomorrow.

For what appears to be a straight technical assessment of the issues, I would suggest World Nuclear News (link http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html)

I was pretty nervous last night. More comfortable this morning - feeling that a successful containment of potential damage will be VERY good for the nuclear industry.

While this may not be evident immediately - with fear mongerers and manipulators doing their best to profit in the markets (interplay of fear and greed at its 'best') - it should materialise as the dust settles.

If there is a meltdown, however, that is a different matter - so lets keep our fingers crossed that that scenario will not occur.