SEN 0.00% 1.3¢ senetas corporation limited

a positive move, page-13

  1. 1,017 Posts.
    No prob Smugs, understand your intent there. Now to your question. Firstly, I do not agree at all that the future is not worth pondering without the capital raising. The capital raising IMO provides a conduit for a privatisation process which of course would involve an alliance partner. For this to happen, let us presume that the process requires an intermediary with reasonable fire power that could stand in the market picking up stock. It would be fair to say that this is IKL. The 46 million shares and the convertible note delivers them about 13% of capital. Once the deal is consumated, they would want IMO to move quickly. FG and RL plus another (assume MK) are the three largest shareholders and could deliver a further 6% giving IKL a total of 19% (just under the Part A threshold). The idea I would assume would be to pick up as much stock as possible at the lowest prices and then be in a position to offer this control to the alliance group for a fixed price. What do I think about RL and FG providing stock to the process. Fine, who else owns that much stock so as to be able to make it work? And further, they have agreed to provide stock at some point but the price has not been disclosed to my understanding. I believe that the 55c relates to the share issue of 46 million shares.
    But just being the devil's advocate for just a moment, if this commercial deal did not eventuate, what then?. Well, the fundamental business model of SEN has not changed in such circumstances. Under such a worst case scenario, yes I would most interested in the business model going forward. But it would not be the end of the world. Life and business would still go on, just a little slower. I think that this plan has been well worked through but there have also been a number of trip wires along the way. It is my belief that things will very soon work out but of course, time will tell!

    Hope this helps Smugs

    Sicilly
 
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