A proxy for Santalis products

Hi All

Some terrific HC posts over the past months, and I've gained a lot of insights into some of the apparent games played with the TFC share price so thanks.

Here's a quick-and-dirty bit of information I've found on a possible proxy for Santalis and how quickly new prescription products might general revenue:

- Picato Gel is used for treatment of sun spots. I see it as a comparable as it is derived from a plant and so went through the same trials and approvals process that Santalis will face.
- The developer of the gel, Peplin, was acquired by LEO Pharma in 2009 for $US287m when Phase 3 trials were nearing completion (http://www.leo-pharma.com.au/Home/L...ia/The-Role-of-Peplin-Operations-Pty-Ltd.aspx)
- Picato received FDA approval in early 2012 (http://www.leo-pharma.us/Files/Bill...Releases/US Picato Approval Press Release.pdf)
- As of June 2016 Picato Gel was generating sales of ~$US69m (http://perrigo.investorroom.com/201...-Generic-Version-Of-Picato-Gel-0-015-And-0-05)
- summarizing  that's ~7 years from Phase 3 trials being almost complete to a decent (+$US50m) revenue base for a single product

So it looks like any serious revenue and profits from pharmaceuticals won't be forthcoming anytime soon, but successful development and launch of any Santalis / Viroxis products will both soak up supply of TFC's plantation harvests thereby keeping oil prices high, and also generate pretty sizable profits for the group beyond the next 4-5 years.

For those who are believers in sum-of-the-parts valuations, it does appear Mr Market is implying very little into the current share price for the Santalis/Viroxis operations