Hi LuckymA set of figures which reflect your guesses about the...

Hi Luckym

A set of figures which reflect your guesses about the Rhodia contract.

End result of data below is 22000 tonnes earnings of 63.5 cents per share if basket remains at $70 approx and rhodia take out 4000 tonnes at $15 per kg. So PE of 10 would indicate a possible share price of $6.30ish by next year if basket holds. More if basket or production facilities go up and of course less if basket goes down. Worst case scenario IMHO is $40 basket with 22,000 tonnes indicating a share price of $3.30 on PE of 10. I doubt we'll ever see that low a basket but an interesting figure upon which to base todays holdings and purchases. The $4 club looks pretty safe at sometime in 2011:)

Assumptions:
1,750,000,000 shares on issue including options,
$9 per kilo production costs ( company argues for $7)

64 years of production already drilled at 22,000 tonnes per year

Negative impact on figures below for Rhodia contract at following assumptions.
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 14.9 cents per share at $80
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 13 cents per share at $70
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 10.3 cents per share at $60
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 8 cents per share at $50
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 5.7 cents per share at $40
4000 tonnes at $15 per kilo for Rhodia less 3.4 cents per share at $30



Based on 11,000 tonnes in year 1= 13.2 cents per share @$30
@$40 = 19.5 cents per share
@$50 =25.7 cents per share
@$60 =32 cents per share
@$70 =38.3 cents per share
@$80 =44.6 cents per share


Based on 22000 tonnes in year 2=26.4 cents per share @$30
@$40 = 39 cents per share
@$50 =51.5 cents per share
@$60 = 64 cents per share
@$70 =76.5 cents per share
@$80 =89 cents per share


Based on 33000 tonnes in year 3=39.6 cents per share @$30
@$40 = 58.5 cents per share
@$50 =77.2 cents per share
@$60 = 96 cents per share
@$70 =114.8 cents per share
@$80 =143.6 cents per share