A quick look at Osmond Resources through a value-in-the-ground lens

Some recent assay data from Osmond's Orion Critical Minerals Project in Spain got me curious, so I ran a basic in-situ valuation model - worth a look for context.

Bulk sample averages (150kg, Avellanar Zone):

• Rutile (TiO₂): ~14%

• Ilmenite: ~5%

• Zircon: ~9%

• Monazite (REEs): ~1.6%

• TREO: ~15,700 ppm (1.57%)

• Hafnium (HfO₂): ~1,225 ppm (0.12%)

Yes, the sample is small and non-JORC, but the grades are high enough to justify exploring a hypothetical valuation.

Working assumptions:

• Area: 228 km² (22,800 ha)

• Mineralised zone: 10% of area = 2,280 ha

• Seam thickness: 2m

• Density: 2.6 t/m³

• Total volume: ~4.56M m³

• Mass: ~12 Mt (rounded for simplicity)

Estimated in-situ value (per tonne of ore):

• Rutile: $252

• Ilmenite: $15

• Zircon: $135

• Monazite/TREO: $320

• Hafnium: $1,200 (note: speculative, high-end pricing)

Total = ~$922/t (gross)
After applying 70% discount for early-stage/development risk: ~$275/t recoverable

Total project valuation (speculative):

• 12Mt × A$400/t (AUD adjusted) = A$4.8B in-ground
  Applying typical early-stage discounting:

• 99% discount = A$48M

• 98% = A$96M

• 97.5% = A$120M

Current market cap? A$37M.

Not investment advice, and it’s clearly very early days (no JORC, no drilling yet). But worth watching if the upcoming drill program confirms continuity.

Would be interesting to see how this stacks against others like Iluka, Strandline, or IonicRE when they were in early stages.