Have also reread the two relevant statements and have come to a...

Have also reread the two relevant statements and have come to a conclusion on likely end result.

Firstly we must appreciate there are three components in this situation. (1) the facts under the law. (2) the need to save face. (3) the need to avoid a political disaster.

Under the law I reckon CAZ has things sown up. However RIO needs to save face. I remember when working in Cobar a similar thing happened with CRA when they forgot or were slow to renew tenements to the east of the town. I think Golden Cross nicked in and registered them, and got them. Their problem is they have more country than they can keep track of and oversights can happen. They will not want to look to incompetant.

The more interesting is the political scenario. Here the minister should stand down and and a new minister appointed. The decision by the minister is tainted and given Carpenter met with RIO during the non contact period it could be construed a conflict exists.

What may happen then; firstly CAZ is given tenements after review by new minister because RIO withdraws claim. CAZ and RIO enter into a joint agreement to mine and process the ore and the new minister gets a "gong" for solving a difficult and damaging political situation!!!