The two markets of interest are seasonal use and stockpiling by...

The two markets of interest are seasonal use and stockpiling by governments.

The seasonal sales of Relenza have never been strong, however LANI could change this especially with a Japanese Pharma marketing it to their domestic market. A license of LANI to a global partner should also be able to do a better job than Relenza and Tamiflu which have never been marketed well enough. Just ask your friends (that don't own BTA) whether they have heard of a cure for the flu!

Stockpiling continues to be a massive market. The UK order proves that governments are very concerned about a possible mutation of the H5N1 virus or other possible pandemic bug. The order also illustrates the move to Relenza.

I'd expect Relenza to surprise up the upside in both markets but the seasonal market would still be small. My only reason in holding BTA is the pipeline. There are some potential blockbusters in there... and 1 close to completing a phase III trial.

At the current price BTA is trading around cash backing... I would love to chat to anyone who is currently selling. Why, do they think they'll get a better return elsewhere?
I'm punting on a very stock re-rating once LANI gets up... possibly to previous highs. And what's the downside?

I'd also recommend the directors have another look at buy backs. What better time to buy back your shares than now?