Jojo,I share your opinion that at some point in time Relenza may...

Jojo,
I share your opinion that at some point in time Relenza may be the only effective antiviral as the Scientific community is waking up to the fact that Relenza is superior to Tamiflu. But this has to occur before other competing products in research catches up with Tamiflu/Relenza, otherwise it will be too late to benefit BTA shareholders.

My point is the world is facing a financial Sunami which could push the pandemic stockpile market out of existence in the short term. Only UK had ordered Relenza and details of the funding is sketchy – as the order may be stretched out over 2 years or more – we just don’t know the details. Japan had indicated their intentions but they do not have the funding and it make take months if not years for it to cystalise. Meanwhile Peter Cook and his mates are rewarding themselves like drunken sailor on a R&R shore leave with total contempt for shareholders.

Only $55M was left in the kitty on 30 September and this will not go far without substantial Relenza royalties. The brokers reports spruiked on BTA website predicted up to $30m annual royalties for BTA to be “cash neutral” in 08/09 FY which was before the spiralling executive remunerations and shares buyback by stealth. 7 months had gone by and the royalties is less than $4 million which mean that even if all the UK order is delivered between now and 30 June the total royalty will still fall short of $30 million.

The GSK and BTA announcements backed up by some of the reports/news indicate strongly that nothing has change in GSK – they are not interested in Relenza and screwing BTA at every step and corner. In my earlier post, the difference between what GSK reported as Relenza sales and what BTA announced could be for Relenza Call options where BTA do not get any royalties. $7.5m out of $30 million is very substantial especially when the Call options are sold at a fraction of what Relenza sells for. Put in another way, IF the $7.5m is call options sales, for every course of Relenza sales, GSK was selling a few courses through call options.

The half yearly result will be interesting as among other things it will indicate what is Biota’s cash burnt rate and how much money has gone out of the kitty.