@dubspec @Mexicanandre @AllFuelledUp @SWMiller Thankfully Bell...

@dubspec @Mexicanandre @AllFuelledUp @SWMiller Thankfully Bell Potter's newest report came out, and pretty much confirms my (our) concerns.

The book will be around $230-50m in FY19, the business is assuming it will have $170m in senior facility there... so youll have $8m-$10m in interest expense there alone.... @dubspec not sure they whether they will be able to get that type of facility without raising... maybe they can... NAB have raised their limit to $40m now... I suppose investors were hoping it would just be continually funded out of free money.

The analyst is recommending a $4 share price ( he should be shot for this) based off an FY19 multiple of EBITDA.... which is going to be $32m... so roughly 25x EBITDA... which is absurd, however based on an FY19 NP of $17m, by then its a $255m-$300m business at best.... proving its hugely overvalued

The business will push out $20-$25m in free cash in the next 5 years annually, at best, so unless you have rocks in your head, youd be discounting the current value off 15-20x $20-$25m ... this is laughable at best.... NPAT multiples higher to justify anywhere near its current value...even then its too contingent around raising tonnes of equity and debt to grow.