a theory going nowhere - volumes, page-5

the theory continued.....

19 460 440 shares traded since 1st October 2004, being 46% of the potentially active shares.

Who is buying them?

Sounds like offshore buyers, does anybody know where they are comming from?





MTB HAS 118 000 000 SHARES IN ISSUE, OF WHICH
32 800 000 ARE HELD BY DIRECTORS, ASSOCIATES, MYSELF AND A COUPLE OF MY COLLEGUES, NONE OF WHICH I WOULD ASSUME ARE FOR SALE.

THIS LEAVES 85 200 000 POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

MY VIEW IS THAT A SIZABLE PORTION OF THESE SHARES ARE HELD BY THE LIKES OF WH IRELAND AND OTHERS WHO I WOULD ASSUME ARE TAKING A LONG TERM VIEW ON THE SHARES WITH A TARGET IN DOLLARS, NOT CENTS. LETS ASSUME (FOR THE SAKE OF BEING CONSERVATIVE) 50%.

THIS LEAVES 42 600 000 (AUD 4.6M OR £ 1.8M CAPITALISATION AT TODAYS PRICE) POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES. THIS IS A VERY SMALL CAPITALISATION.

WE HAVE SEEN ABOUT 10 000 000 SHARES TRADED/IN THE SYSTEM THIS MONTH (SO FAR), THATS 23% OF THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

LAST MONTH ONLY ABOUT 900 000 SHARES TRADED OR 2% OF THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SHARES.

....WHERE AM I GOING ON THIS?
THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF STOCK IN CIRCULATION, A SIZABLE PORTION OF THIS STOCK HAS BEEN BOUGHT UP THIS MONTH (WE ASSUME BY OVERSEAS INVESTORS), THIS HAS TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE SUPPLY/DEMAND RELATIONSHIP AND SHOULD HAVE A PRICE EFFECT.