As a long term holder of TMR I naturally have an interest in how...

As a long term holder of TMR I naturally have an interest in how the offer is going, what IBR holders think of it, and whether it is good for TMR.

At the start of this process I new nothing of IBR, but my little knowledge now indicates it is a company with lots of promise but with a history of struggling to get to the production stage - a very common problem with emerging producers.

Since the offer was made, several events have occurred which I would have expected to have a +ve impact of TMR's share price:

1. Copper price is up ~50% since the offer, from around 2.50lb in late Feb to 3.75lb on Friday.

2. TMR have just produced an excellent quarterly result where management have over delivered on what they had previously announced.

3. Given that TMR is unhedged they will very likely have an even better current quarter.

So in my opinion the TMR share price is being held back because of the uncertainity of the bid outcome, or possibly because of a view that the bid is not good for TMR.

Ultimately the market will decide these issues, and with 62% acceptances to date it is heading in TMR's direction but is still a long way from 90%.

If the bid fails, I think the TMR share price may move up quickly based on the 3 points above.

The big unknown is what happens if the bid succeeds. If the market thinks TMR has got a bargain then the share price should move up. If the view is that TMR has paid a fair price, then the share price may well drift sideways until we see progress with getting IBR gold production into full swing. Of course the price of Gold and Copper will also influence the share price going forward.

So do I want the bid to succeed? If I take a short term view, the answer is no, as I think the TMR share price may quickly move higher if the bid fails. But long term, a bigger TMR with Gold and Copper exposure is a better proposition, although who knows where Gold and Copper prices are going long term.

If you are still an undecided IBR holder, then do consider my 3 points above because these are big positives for TMR since the offer was made.

All I really want now is for this deal to be decided one way or another very quickly, but I am starting to think it may drag on for some time yet.