I had a look at the ABBVIE INC. Quarterly Report dated 12-Nov-2013. Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/131112/abbv10-q.html
Here's the commentary on AndroGel (Axiron’s main competitor).
"AndroGel sales for the third quarter and first nine months of 2013 were impacted by rebates implemented during the second half of 2012 and certain account losses in early 2013. AndroGel continues to hold the number one market share position in the U.S. testosterone replacement market, with approximately 60 percent of the market share. AndroGel 1% sales are expected to be impacted by generic competition in 2015."
AndroGel's total market share has declined from c. 72% in April 2011 to 64.7% in Oct 2013 and it is reported here as 60% as at November 2013... Axiron has been picking up this share loss...
Bell Potter research suggests that Axiron may pickup a further 1-2% share based on the following logic:
"For 2H14, based on the expectation of increased sales from new formulary wins to take effect from 1 January we expect Axiron to reasonably pick up 1% to 2% market share of the topical gels market. We estimate each 1% of market share represents ~US$15m of revenues annually or $3.7m/qtr." Source Bell Potter research dated 19 November 2013
ACR Price at posting:
$2.39 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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