a1 spud sucess price

Posters,
Assuming the first drill encounters hydrocarbons (80% chance) and given this drill is not likely to result in qualifying the discovery in TCF.
I would like to hear everyones price estimate and justifications for this (Whether positive or negative).
It will be interesting to hear everyones take as there are many variables here.

My price estimate is $1.10. This is based on:
1. A1 will require follow up wells to determine resource size hence value. This is likely to take a further 12 months.
2. MEO is a traders stock and not a holders stock, selling pressure may likely have a significant impact post spud. (Buy on the Rumour Sell on the fact)
3. Heron Farm-out likely to take several months, furthermore management is not very proactive when it comes to deadlines or meeting expectations.
4. Bots/Continued Manipulation which effects sentiment.
5. The ASX IMO is not likely to break 5500 points in the next 60 days.

My basic thoughts only, please respond with your own.