A1M (ASX) A1M: General Comments

Originally posted by vandeleur: ↑

Totally agree Ash.

From their recent reports and presentations i think they have hit a problem, but a good problem. This being is that AC has twice now mentioned recently the possibility of moving towards not 'in excess of 20,000t of Cu' but towards '30,000t of Cu'.

The plant currently has a capacity of around 725,000t per year. And for the last 12 months, gingerly at the start, they have talked about upgrading to a 1,100,000t plant whilst also using external contractors and processors during construction.

Average grade over the last 2 years has been approx 2%. So the highlighted new plant would produce hypothetically 22,000t of Cu at capacity.

AC's recent suggestions of 30,000tpa would therefore need either a higher grade going through it or a bigger plant.

Having listened to the gradual commentary over the last 2 years of increasing the size of the plant i'm now thinking the narrative will move towards a new 1.4 - 1.6m ton plant over the next 6 months, pending further drill success at Swagman and Jericho South.

And from the past; Last year in May they announced 23,000m of drilling at Jericho. Included in the July 2023 Jericho resource/reserve upgrade there aren't even any pictures, or suggestions of any proposed drill holes at Swagman. First Jericho results were announced in August. Drilling in the Swagman area didn't start until early August last year, discovery and announcement was September.

Roll on to now; Announcement early April of 1,600m (only!) of Swagman Diamond drilling, 4 holes (largely RC last year). So splitting the difference between announcements to drill and actual results from last year one could expect drilling results from Swagman, and Jericho South, (and Lens 6 from previous announcement drilling?) sometime between a few weeks time and early July.

From there, if results are positive i would think the narrative might evolve towards a bigger plant, or a bigger boat as per Richard Dreyfuss and Roy Scheider!

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A nice problem, vandeleur, still a serious problem.

First, more drilling - both exploratory and resource definition drilling - is commanded by recent successes extending fun bits NNE from the Jericho discoveries. EM weakens in that direction, which may be either orebody size or depth. Depth isn't a problem if viable orebodies extend to opposite the deep Eloise mine. I don't want to raise false hopes, yet this is tantalising.

Enlarging the concentrator to 20ktpa in easy stages is underway. A bit more resource (that drilling again!) would justify 30ktpa. It would also put A1M in the sights of major miners desperate for more Cu exposure. BHP's bid for AAL is early-stage in this Cu bull market. M&A activity will become frantic.

A1M needs $100m+ for the Jericho boxcut, facilities and tunnelling. Holders rarely like a cap raise, yet this is an attractive investment to be considered on its merits.

Ash.