In the two previous years it has rallied to March then became a...

In the two previous years it has rallied to March then became a dumper.

I don't know how anyone could make realistic projections since Xi is Lying about the 4.5% growth rate and instead of his key bureaucrats telling him what to do they are telling him how to adjust the basis of the figures so that the number comes out at 4.5%. I.e. facilatating the lie. India and AI demand is picking up some of the slack but predictions are fraught & then there's Trump's ideas and the Currency & bond market.

I'm comfortable that A1M SP is not pricing in unduly favourable though.

Unless the next number on this chart due in the next day is say > 7 to10. Then a Cu price jump from here is likely a head fake.
https://au.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-copper-speculative-positions-1620

However, the sequence is more important.

All IMVHO.