Hard to put a number on it Ash. I think going straight to...

Hard to put a number on it Ash. I think going straight to 30,000tpa is more realistic, rather than 40,000tpa, or maybe split the difference? Here's my reasoning;

Currently Jericho is at 285,000 as a resource (various levels of inferred, indicated, measured etc). What does 'breathtaking' mean? I heard him say it and he was bold. I'm thinking at least double and perhaps more into measured and in April more into Reserves?

So back to output. In the Bells presso he said they were now very confident of being able to produce more than 1mtpa of ore out of Jericho via the link. At 2% ore this gives you at least 20,000tpa. But he did say 'more' than 1mtpa. Now Eloise nameplate capacity is 725,000tpa but for a while now has only been running at 600 - 650,000tpa.

The interesting bit i think is that in the most recent report $2.5m was 'provisioned' as a payment to BHP/Oz Min/Minataur re the original Jericho purchase. Now google 'provisioning' and when where how you do it (essentially a specific timeline to production in the short term once you know you are going to be producing)....leads me to believe that first development ore will be coming out of Jericho by this time next year and will be able to fill the 100,000tpa gap that currently exists at Eloise, prior to its upgrade. This by itself is good news. I hadn't noticed the gap before.

Which brings me back to your question Ash re what AIC would be worth as a 40,000tpa producer....well most likely around $1.3 - 1.6b at the current copper price. But i would argue that 30,000tpa is more likely, that would embrace just over 1mtpa from Jericho and 500kpa from Eloise both at 2%...really the figures probably point to around 35,000tpa. 30,000tpa might give a MC of $800 - 1.3b?

If we don't get diluted, which i think is unlikely then the current $224m MC could reach these loftier heights in around 2.5 years, ie once the new plant is running at 100%. But perhaps bring that forward by 6 months due to anticipation. (Finance arranged April / May and plant contract awarded in July / August)

And the wild card for the SP with the about to be released 'breathtaking' resource upgrade is surely no longer the CU price or the drill bit. At a 500,000t resource surely AIC would be very much on the M&A radar. How many resources /mines like this are out there and at this advanced stage and size and hence largely de risked? Jericho is high grade, shallow and the road map to completion is pretty much there. EVN to the north has been paying down debt rapidly, bought North Parks last year, similar ish, and i'm pretty sure when 6 months ago AC said mining royalty was in the room at the AGM/Qtly he meant Jake Klein....but could easily be wrong.

DYOR as always, no advice,