Don't see the financing of the concentrator as an unknown. I...

Don't see the financing of the concentrator as an unknown. I mean, the pricing is unknown, but not whether its possible to raise the debt.

Copper projects these days are very well regarded by lenders, and can take large chunks of debt especially at current copper price. The likes of Sierra Metals (Copper Producer in Peru and Mexico) and 29 Metals (Copper Producer in Australia), raised significant portions of debt over last couple of years and they were two companies in financial peril when financing was raised. 29 Metals is obviously highly relevant given same jurisdiction as AIC. Their Senior Debt had a covenant of 2x EBITDA so I think that's basically the gearing potential for AIC. There will need to be some room to the covenant level so I suspect AIC wouldn't gear this up all the way there but 1.5x seems plausible. 2024 EBITDA was 52m so 1.5x = 78m. Using 2025 EBITDA of 65m, would mean 98m. Further, the concentrator expansion is being done to increase EBITDA in the short term (12 months) so could even go more aggressive. In my opinion, the only reason the debt is not yet in place is because Aaron and team are deciding whether there are any interesting M&A opportunities lurking around. If they are, there could be rationale to maximise the gearing potential to fund those. If there aren't then no point in levering up at this point and can just raise 60m to fund the concentrator expansion.

On pricing, I would view the mezzanine debt put in place by Glencore for 29 Metals (at at a time when they were breaching the covenants of the senior debt) as a peak in terms of financing. I think that was at SOFR + 450bps. Capstone recently renegotiated its RCF to SOFR + 175-275bps. MAC Copper recently raised debt at SOFR + 225bps. So my expectation is AIC will raise debt at SOFR + 250-350bps. SOFR is currently 4.35%.

Overall, I think AIC is very under the radar. The reality is that at 125m USD market cap, it's hard for any passive institutional money to be parked with AIC. Equally, retailers have an investment horizon of weeks/months at most, and the AIC story needs another 6-12 months to really catch fire. At current EBITDA its already trading low at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3x LTM or 2x NTM. By FY27 with Jericho online, it's closer to 1x. Copper Producers go for 5-6x EBITDA.