A2 IF Monthly Sales

Ok so the first 6 months sales are confirmed via the total given in the HY report. The last 6 months are guesstimates using January performance and applying a conservative growth rate (slower % growth then first half FY16). I am very confident in these numbers and they indicate 400 mil+ FY16 revenues. Again this is just the IF segment (non IF segment for FY16 should be around 135-140 million total).

IF sales per month ($millions):

	Column 1	Column 2
0	Jul	5.9
1	Aug	8
2	Sep	10
3	Oct	13
4	Nov	15
5	Dec	22

Total 1H IF sales: 73.9 (as per report)

	Column 1	Column 2
0	Jan	25
1	Feb	28
2	Mar	31
3	Apr	33
4	May	35
5	Jun	38

Total IF Sales FY16: $263.9 million

Explanation:
July- October monthly sales don't really matter. We were told in the announcement on AGM that total IF till October was $38 million. It does not matter what you put specifically for each of those four months as long as total is 38 million.

November is a confirmed $15 million with 90% certainty as December 18th updated said on track for first half IF sales of 68million$. This means that nov and December was on track to hit $30 mil IF sales combined (68-38). They also said that they expect that December to continue at the same pace as November in the 18th dec update. Management is usually very conservative so they would have known nov sales of $15 mil and expected the same $15 mil for Dec. Instead dec came in at 22 mil (73.9-68=December over perforamnce compared to November).

Next we have news now that January was 'exceptional'. Considering that dec was 22m (maybe 21 at the least), then jan would have been at the minimum 23+. What management have done to get their estimated guidance of 330-350 for FY16 is apply the jan IF figure for the other 5 months with 0 growth. Replace the last 5 months that I have entered as 23-25 mil and you will hit their guidance. What I have done is assumed little growth per month of $2-3 million IF sales.

Hope you guys enjoyed the numbers. A poster here requested I do this . Hopefully there isn't a mad rush to buy shares tomorrow because of this