I guess I am not the only A2m/ ATM shareholder here that concern...

I guess I am not the only A2m/ ATM shareholder here that concern on what happened to BAL sp yesterday would have impact on A2M/ ATM sp. I keep asking myself, is there any lessons that I could learn? any factors/information that I might have overlooked that could actually help me to make better decision on what should I do with the A2M share/stock that I am holding.

(My personal opinion) What I see from BAL sp sell out yesterday is due to poor management forecasting of demand and inventory/ordering management.

2 keys sentences from BAL announcement yesterday:
(1) Bellamy's 2016 singles day sales were significantly stronger compared to last year's performance, however below the company's expectations
(2) Bellamy's will continue to experience temporary volume dislocation.

From these 2 sentences, we can see that Bellamy's management and retailers/ distributors/ daigous might be too optimistic on their forecast. They had placed a huge order to build up their stocks/ inventories to get ready for 11/11 event and expecting the sales will be significant higher or at least will meet what they expected. But unfortunately, the reality came out to be, the 11/11 sales was lower than what they were expected and causing huge inventories/ stocks left over that unsold. When there is huge inventories/ stocks available that couldn't sell, they need to lower their price to get rid off the stocks hence profit impacted. Then they will also need to greatly reduce their stocks ordering for the following months/periods until the inventories/ stocks that they are holding are all sold or reach the "safety" level before they start to place for another order again. This effect will then pass on to BAL, hence causing what happened yesterday. Normally the further you are up in the supply chain, the later/ further the delay of you will feel the impact/effect, this explain why BAL management only start to realize about this issue after a month ago they announced to the public that they are still on track for their performance.

Therefore, we should run the same thinking/ reality check to A2M too. There is no doubt that the sales for 4mFY17 announced in recent AGM is great, but we need to understand that this sales result does include the stocks/ inventories build up to get ready for 11/11 event ( from AGM presentation: "Year to date revenue reflects significant seasonal build for key China sales event 11/11 Singles Day"). Will A2M face the same problem as BAL?
will there be lots of left over A2 IF stocks that still in the market that need to be digested/ sold before new demand/ orders came in that will affect A2M's sales in the following months after the announced 4mFY17 period? Sales data after 11/11 is very important and critical to determine whether A2M have the same problem. Thus, we need help from HC members that might be able to access to this info either via your networks or you/ yourself are the distributors/ retailers/ daigous/ pharmacies owners to share what your thoughts on this. Basically a simple yet important question: "Did you sold out majority of your 11/11 stocks/ inventories or there are still many left over? how is the sales after 11/11" that could help us to clear this mystery.

Thanks in advance to all. Hope to hear some useful thoughts/ info.