According to A2M's latest update on 18 Dec, they are expecting...

According to A2M's latest update on 18 Dec, they are expecting FY EBIT of $NZD 33 - 37M. That's $AUD 30.9 - 34.6M.

Bellamy's 6 months x 2 is already higher than A2M's forecast FY EBIT (19 x 2 = $AUD 38M). Remember that Bellamy's increased the price of their product by ~30% in late November, so this will significantly add to EBIT and they've also said they are expecting a stronger 2HY 2016. Bellamy's FY EBIT will more likely be somewhere around AUD $50M.

Bellamy's have a higher margin business model than A2M. The milk side of A2M's business is not high margin, hence why their revenues are higher, yet EBIT is lower.


Both have pretty much identical market caps at the moment:

A2M = $1.28B
BAL = $1.23B

By the end of the year, I'm predicting A2M to be around $2.50 (30% more than current price) and BAL to be $20 (56% more than current price). I think that is fair based on the above.