Okey doke, the risk/reward position for 2016 is quite different...

Okey doke, the risk/reward position for 2016 is quite different from 2015, in my opinion

My feel is that the December earnings guidance is now priced in, perhaps still over priced in by 10 to 20% or so.

2016 Potentials:

> An unexpected increase in formula production due to an exceptional, above and beyond, Synlait “milk the opportunity” campaign effort.
> The sign up of a second infant formula producer, possible, but unlikely in my opinion.
> An uptick in fresh milk exports to China, off the back of infant formula sales awareness.
> Further successful clinical trials in China and NZ.
> An uptick in Australian fresh milk market share due to day traders spending all those profits.

2016 Risks:

> US & UK revenues falling short of forecast $38M, A2M have already suggested a delay.
> Mainland China infant formula price point pressure arising from Yashili and Synlait brands.
> Stage 2 Chinese Government infant formula regulation, stage 1 dumped the share price in 2014.
> Chinese buying the “NZ made” over “a2 health benefit” message, in facing price point pressure.
> The Synlait facility reaching full capacity earlier than 2017 due to other customer production.
> A capital raise for an A2M infant formula plant build.
> A peak or a plateau in Australian fresh milk market share, looks a little plateau-ish about here.
> An unfavourable NZD/AUD exchange rate, reporting is in NZD

Have I missed any ?