A2M 1.40% $6.32 the a2 milk company limited

A2M FY20 Results, page-29

  1. 2,051 Posts.
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    I was considering trimming down my position regardless of result as long as the price is around $20. The China progress is making this difficult. There is no sign of a slowdown in China sales. The sales in China increased by a whopping 65%. For the first time ever, China sales (CBEC + China label) will be the largest revenue source by geography (currently ANZ). Direct China sales make up almost half the revenue now. So even if sales in ANZ and USA were flat for FY21, a 60% increase in China sales would mean a 30% increase in overall revenue. 2 years ago I didn't think A2m will be able to grow revenue at this pace going into FY21.
    If I am correct with the revenue growth forecast (and with the EBITDA ratio being similar to FY20 as per guidance), the NPAT for FY21 will be just around $500m (thats right, half a billionafter tax!). At a forward PE of 40 (very reasonable for a business growing at 20%+ for the mid term), this gives a market cap of 20bn NZD, giving a share price of approximately $27 NZD (~25% rise from yesterday's close).
    And as frustrated as I am with the time management is taking to invest the cash pile, once a decision is made, it will likely result in even greater mid term revenue growth and possibly justify a higher PE ratio.

 
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