A2m PE and price Forecast with increasing sales, page-59

Hey Lain,

Your estimates for FY15 should not be included in the ramp up in production as these production values were already committed too without the additional capacity of D3.

I've done some rough figures (a bit optimistic) using revenue per month value.

4 months to October Rev = 38mil .
plant commissioned end of September. Safe to assume rough average per month of plant capacity\
Avg Rev per month without additional capacity of D3 = 38/4 = 9.5 mil/month

Now ramp up in avg revenue with DEC15 FC update = 15 mil/month (as shown previously)
This suggests an increase in production of 5.5mil per month after commissioning of D3 (15-9.5)

Now assume Dryers are running at 90% of full capacity
=140 000Mt x 0.9
=126 000Mt

Now D3 has capacity of 50 000 Mt (assume D1 and D2 running at 100%)
Available production in D3 = 140 000 - 126 000 = 24 000 Mt
Now assume A2 makes up 85% production in D3 = 26 000 x 85%=22 100 Mt
Now for rough calculations sake assume A2M can take up remaining production in D3
=24 000/ 22 100
= available capacity over 100% lets rough 100% increase

Now remember previously stated that there was an increase in production of 5.5 mil per month with commissioning of D3, now there is capacity to increase this another 100% so 11 mil per month if the plant were to run at 100%

so 11 mil/month + original 9.5 mil/month(production prior to D3 commissioning) = 20.5 mil per month

With roughly 15mil/ month of revenue forecasted, it appears capacity exists to increase the revenue by another 30% ... 20/15 mil.

A bit optimistic but there does look like potential exists for increases in production.

Thanks,

Naomi