Forward PE's above 50 is bubble world in my book. That is my personal risk limit.
My conservative valuation:
EBITDA NZD$35m
EBITDA AUD$32.9m
subtract 40% for ITDA and unknowns
gives ~20m npat
723.5m shares listed (includes 20m options in the money)
at a forward PE of 50
gives a sp of $1.38
At the current sp of $1.88, the forward PE is ~68 in my book.
Production limitations is my primary concern now. Significant capital will be required to expand production to drive significant further earnings growth from here imho. They can raise prices to drive earnings, but that is a short term game. It will be a warning if they go down that path in 2016.
The baby formula bubble will burst at some point in 2016 if greed continues to grow and cloud peoples judgement (likely given human frailties I guess). Will be fascinating to watch it and learn.
A2M Price at posting:
$1.88 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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