El Jefe, Appreciate your analysis which I often read several...

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captjohn

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04/12/18

11:22

Post #: 36741555
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Originally posted by El Jefe ↑

Reasoning for TAW to take staged approach was multi-pronged approach

DMS ——> Fines.

1. Feedback at commercial throughput rates - This gave the company the commercial scale feedback/knowledge to fine tune things on the DMS before deciding on the best approach over both DMS and fines. The FS study provided for up to 10mm crush size as the best approach for processing. This has since changed up to 18mm due to production feedback which very likely would never have been assessable in a lab or pilot plant/BFS studies etc. Its not a cookie cutter install.

2. Speed to production - looking very astute now, outsourcing finance for a lithium mine in current market would be very difficult, it was even in the over hyped days last year.

3. Less upfront costs - limit dilution and debt for all holders

4. Align ramp up of Bald Hill with Burwill ramp up in China

Further to no. 1.
Altura are using an upper end crush size (as per DFS) of 6mm.
I would guess PLS are using similar but can't see anything about it in the DFS.
So TAW is up to X3 coarser product in this regard.

AJM are quoted as having 40% of total output as fines as opposed to 20% expected from TAW of total output. Im not sure about PLS here. Fines is generally considered as less than 1mm but TAW fines is less than 2mm, again coarser than peers and than anticipated in initial studies.

In regards to SP predictions, I have no idea. $1 gives a ~$1.3B MC.
Thats a fair hike to where we are currently over the space of 12 months but if we are pushing towards 300 ktpa with minimal/no debt, thats a large amount of profits being generated. If we take costs being $US442 p/t that gives a $600 margin per ton at $US880. If we say production of 250ktpa at that point your looking at $150m before tax profits. Reduced costs and increased production will obviously look better but even at the conservative figures then $1 doesn't look too unachievable. Especially if you throw in sizeable increases in resource figures and a more advanced position in regards to DMS 2.

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El Jefe, Appreciate your analysis which I often read several times to absorb the (in depth) mining options.
Thank goodness we have MC to show the way thru ramp up.....& so far leading out front IMO.

re. S/P I have family & friends query me all the time ...& to shut 'em up I say (with tongue in cheek) ...S/P should double each year ....coff coff ! so better than leaving $$$ in Bank ..

A40 Price at posting: 0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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El Jefe, Appreciate your analysis which I often read several...

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