A4N is still an HPA player, and I suspect it HPA will end up at around half the total output of the main production plant. My guess is based on their spreadsheet from mid-December, where they outlined what kind of offtakes they were pursuing.
A4N's product mix is complimentary product-wise - as @osr1986 implied - it's essentially the same process to produce all their derivatives. Some people talk on HC as if precursors and HPA are somehow apples and oranges - the reality, they are more like apples and apple juice.
IMO it's a significant competitive advantage to be playing in several chemical markets and not just the one as they were several years ago. And, the more precursor in the main operation, the better; it's a heavier product (7x) using the same volume of feedstock - it doesn't go through the calcination & drying stage HPA does. And it's sold at a premium to HPA - so I wouldn't give a hoot if all they sold was precursors as they would make ALOT more money. But the fact is, A4N is not moving away from HPA, and you can read it in the offtake spreadsheet and every presentation - and as a company if you can sell apples and apple juice in an attempt to dominate the apple market, (long way to go) but why not?
The private precursor spot market is utterly opaque; I've no insights into it and can only presume that Rimas/Seckholds aren't complete fools.
I hope you are correct regarding moving away from the Bayer system, and in the longer term, I think you're right. But I'm just a cynical if companies over the next few years - years critical to a slew of HPA hopefuls - will kick that energy efficiency can down the road and go for a new, unproven supplier over an incumbent due to the gloomy macro outlook and perceived risk.
DYOR - Good luck all
A4N Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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