A4N is looking great on the product and grade side of things. Covered well I think in the past.
But, I did a little dive into our competitor's results, as I've been reading how exceptional their quality is, but I'd never investigated.
Third parties do everything, I know IMO Metallurgy (https://www.indmetops.com.au/index.html) developed their process flow sheet and I'm pretty sure they constructed the pilot plant also.
Run 1
The first time their pilot plant ran was in October 2019. It ran for one week 24/7, 1kg per hour, which equals total output at 168kg for the week.
Ann 6th Nov 2019 - The results were Ok; they averaged 4N just. Three results came in at 3N, three at 4N.
Ann 11th Dec 2019 - This ann is weird. Strangely, out of the blue, a month later, they announced a second phase was done within the week the pilot plant operated and this saw results of mid 4N's? This ann then throws up some questions, why wasn't the market informed more results were coming? How much of the good HPA was produced, or was it mostly 3N? How much could they send to customers.
Run 2
The second run was July/August 2020. The idea was to run it the same as last time, a week 24/7.
Ann 2nd Sept 2020 - Results aren't that crash hot again (see table) but they have more planned improvements. Of course, they don't say how much 3N vs 4N was produced.
Run 3
The third run happened in October 2020. Not as much detail was released to the market here. And as far as I can tell, results from this run were never released to the market. Were they that bad? Maybe I'm missing them.
Run 4
The fourth run happened in December 2020.Alcoa steps in and makes significant changes to the pilot plant, which they pay for. They also change the feedstock entirely, and hey presto, they get much better results in the very high 4N range, comparable with what A4N are getting.
So... those guys need this deal as before Alcoa stepped in, their pilot plant wasn't up to scratch or even in the ball park of A4N results. It's hard to imagine they've been able to cobble together enough high-quality 4N for an expansive outreach campaign as so much of their output in the first 3 runs was only 3N. Still, they've probably been able to target a few customers and service them with enough quality HPA to get an offtake done (at some stage if they are lucky). They do have plenty of 3N to go around if they want to "pivot".
I still don't get what's in it for Alcoa. The market is tiny - why not wait and just pounce on a winner down the track.
But I've been wrong about lots of stuff, so could easily be wrong about this.
All IMO - DYOR - never investment advice - Good luck all!
(20min delay)