S32 4.82% $3.70 south32 limited

AAL Nickel? Maybe., page-2

  1. 3,851 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 556
    So @Ashentegra - this could be a "maybe" in your opinion.
    Firstly, I will be happy if S32 can examine/review the operations of AAL's nickel assets (liabilities?) - there is always info relevant to one's own business to be obtained.
    Secondly, I would not be displeased if S32 would benefit from AAL's pain - distressed sellers can sometimes sell well below value.
    Thirdly, I would be concerned that (eventual) closure and rehabilitation liabilities (and possible hidden risks) be well understood and treated with utmost prudence - especially as in Brazil the Samarco disaster will lead to much heightened government, societal, and legal expectations.
    Fourthly, in my knowledge, Nickel has been a "decade-of-boom" followed by "decade-of-bust" business commodity - eg remember Yabulu (initially mine+) refinery near Townsville - late70's then into 80's BOOM under BHP, then BUST, followed by cheap sale to the mercurial Alan Bond's private company Dallhold in 90s, then BOOM funding much of Mr Bond's other adventures, then BUST, followed by cheap State govt-assisted sale to Clive Palmer's interestingly-structured company in the late 2000s, then BOOM, then BUST - so I am concerned about how S32 could factor this in (possibly through long periods of "care and maintenance").
    Fifthly, with China as nIckel customer having captured new Nickel ore supply through massively developing Indonesian nickel, the Nickel price may have taken a permanent step-down, rather than its previous see-saws etc, so I am concerned about long term price - hence questions about grades and operating costs and whether bottom-quartile cost of production is achievable.
    Sixthly, I would want S32 to maintain more than sufficient capital for current development projects, emergent opportunities, and global recession risks.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add S32 (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.