It would be nice to have an explanation for the discrepancy between their quarterly forecast and their ASX reply. It seems a bit beyond the interests of the company right now though to let us know.
This presents the ideal opportunity for some idle speculation from people like myself who have no real knowledge of the actual state of affairs of the company (I suspect I'm in good company here!)
Theory number 1: The company was doing the bare minimum it needed to demonstrate to the ASX that they are a going concern and have a reasonable prospect of eventually meeting their liabilities.
Theory number 2: As of the time of the announcement, average head grades have yet to exceed about 2 g/t and their was uncertainty as to whether this would improve. At their reported milling rate, 2 g/t would be about 5500 ounces for the quarter.
Theory number 3: At the time of their reply, they had already produced 5500 ounces and thought there was a reasonable chance they wouldn't lose them.
Theory number 4: The Christmas break meant a delay in the time gold was produced and when revenues could actually be booked (but not enough to account for the roughly 2500 ounce difference).
Perhaps an equally intriguing question would be the various posters' rationale for hanging around this forum. Some hold, some don't, some used to, some think there is a chance to make money, some may be curious about the company and whether or not they can pull it off, some may be looking for a case study in when things go bad and the impact of perhaps dodgy management. Others may just be interested in train wrecks.
I'm in the chance to make money camp. Start ups which have gone wrong present an opportunity to make money as sentiment swings way to far to the negative side. I may not make money in this situation, but given enough instances like this I think I will come out ahead. The two or three times I get it right will more than offset the five or six times I don't.
Here is a link to a blog (Adventures in Capitalism, Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital) I came across last week where this type of scenario is discussed. The piece is about Apex (AXM), but the principles hold for AAM.
